Hurricane Ike Threatens South Florida
Posted on September 4, 2008
The latest five-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Hurricane Ike directly into South Florida. Ike is currently a Cat 4 hurricane with winds of 135 mph. A major hurricane hitting South Florida will be an extremely costly storm. It would also require a massive evacuation from South Florida to save lives. We saw a similar mass exodus from Florida in 1999 when Florida residents fled Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, the five-day forecast is subject to large errors as the NHC expains in the latest Hurricane Ike discussion.
hereafter...Ike is forecast to approach the western periphery of the ridge and begin to turn west-northwestward. The big question is when will the turn take place. The track guidance is in two distinct branches...the GFS...NOGAPS...and UKMET show the turn occurring over the Bahamas....while the HWRF...GFDL...and ECMWF take Ike over Cuba or The Straits of Florida. Until it become clear as to which one of these solutions will prevail... the official forecast remains between them...close to the model consensus and the previous advisory.
As a reminder...4 and 5 day forecasts are subject to potentially large errors in both track and intensity.