Wilma Weakens Slightly and Slows Down

Posted on October 20, 2005

Hurricane Wilma has weakened slightly and is slowing down. Wilma is now a very strong Category 4 hurricane. Wilma's winds have dropped to 145 mph -- this is still an extremely dangerous and destructive hurricane. The forecast path for Wilma from the NHC has changed slightly and there is now a greater chance Wilma will make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

The forecast path has not changed for Florida and a second landfall is still forecast for Florida. Because of the slower pace of Wilma this landfall has been delayed and will take place on Sunday instead of Saturday. The NHC forecast still has Wilma making landfall in Florida as a major hurricane -- Category 3. However, if Wilma spends a long time over the Yucatan it could weaken considerably. Dr. Jeff Masters explains:

Finally, by Saturday, strong westerly winds will build in behind the trough and carry Wilma rapidly northeastward across South Florida or the waters between Florida and Cuba. The absolutely critical thing is -- where will Wilma stall out? The GFDL model believes Wilma will push inland over the tip of the Yucatan, and spend two days overland, and weaken to a tropical storm. The UKMET model believes Wilma will stall in the Yucatan Channel, and not lose much strength. The other models have modest variations on these two themes. The difference in postions is only 100 miles or so. This is impossible to reliably forecast even 12 hours in advance, given the weak steering currents that are likely to exist Friday. Will will just have to wait and see what happens. Very small changes in storm position will cause huge changes in Wilma's intensity.

The risk to the Northeast and New England still exists but it will be a while before we know whether Wilma stays far offshore or makes a severe impact on the Northeast.

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HURRICANE WILMA