Frankenstorm Sandy: Likelihood of Historic U.S. East Coast Monster Hybrid Storm Increasing

Posted on October 25, 2012

The likelihood of a historic storm in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. is increasing. Hurricane Sandy is currently threatening the Bahamas. It is expected to merge with a cold front and become a powerful hybrid. Computer models show Sandy will be forced to turn northwest into the U.S. east coast by a strong area of high pressure, instead of going northeast out to sea like the tropical threats usually do. This means the powerful Sandy hybrid will plow into the east coast somewhere bringing flooding rains, strong winds and a significant storm surge. A full moon will help make the storm surge greater than it normally would be. The image above shows the five-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

The Weather Channel has plans to name winter storm this year, but they may have to give the Sandy hybrid a pass as it already has a name (Sandy) and it is also being dubbed "Frankenstorm" by the media and even by the National Weather Services' Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS

Here are some highlights of the potential impacts from Sandy:

Dr. Jeff Masters writes in a blog post that Sandy could be a billion-dollar disaster:

Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern.

It isn't hard to imaging Sandy being a billion-dollar storm if it comes in south of the New York City area. Isabel caused an estimated $3.6 billion+ damage according to Wikipedia, and it came in much farther south, in the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Some of the coastal Mid-Atlantic regions have not experienced a large storm surge in many, many years and the damage to property could be very large as the region is impacted with surge, high waves and a full moon tide. This region has been buffeted by strong winds before, but it is the surge that the Mid-Atlantic states are the most unprepared for. The surge will be much greater than a category one storm, because it is the overall size and power of the storm that matters when it comes to surge, not the category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale.

The Capital Weather Gang blog has a good roundup of some of the ominious concerns about the hybrid storms from experts here. These concerns range from the storm lasting for a week to fallen fall leaves clogging storm drains and exacerbating flooding problems.

James Franklin from the National Hurricane Center may sum it all up best when he says Sandy will be, "just a big mess for an awful lot of people in the early part of next week."

Take a look:

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