High Risk of Excessive Rain for Parts of MI and AL

Posted on February 10, 2020

The NWS is warning of a risk of excessive rainfall across portions of central Mississippi and central and norther Alabama today and tonight. Multiple periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected with totals of 3-5 inches or more.
Ignoring antecedent conditions would suggest this event solidly fits into the Moderate risk category...with the lack of exceptional rainfall rates keeping things from a High risk. However, in this case antecedent conditions are very wet across the region...with soil saturated, streamflows high, and dams nearing capacity in spots. Also, we are pre growing season, meaning there is less vegetation to absorb the rainfall. Thus the antecedent conditions suggest that rainfall of the magnitude forecast will cause significant and potentially life threatening flooding and flash flooding today into tonight. For this reason, after collaboration with impacted WFOs, we have decided to upgrade to a HIGH risk of excessive rainfall across portions of MS and AL. Multiple rounds of convection will result in a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall...with totals of 3-5"+ expected by 12z Tuesday.

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